Dear Editor,
I have taken time to read the latest Gambia Participates opinion poll. My view is simple: It is useful as a snapshot of the people interviewed, but we should be very careful about treating it as a reliable picture of how Gambians will vote on 5th December 2026.

As someone whose background is grounded in quantitative research, I believe I have a professional and moral obligation to look beyond the headlines and examine the research design, sampling, methodology and interpretation of the results. This is not about rejecting findings because we like or dislike them. It is about applying proper research standards.

The poll surveyed 1,556 people across all 53 constituencies between 27th July and 10th August 2026. A sample of 1,556 can be statistically adequate. My concern is not the size of the sample. My concern is whether the sample is representative of the electorate.

The poll sample is 59% male and 41% female. Yet women make up the majority of registered voters. This matters because the poll itself shows that men and women do not always express the same candidate preferences.

The geographical distribution also raises questions. Brikama accounts for only 24% of the sample, while some smaller LGAs appear proportionately higher. The report does not clearly explain whether weighting was applied to correct these differences.

Coverage of all 53 constituencies is positive, but constituencies are not equal in voter population. What matters is how many people were selected in each constituency, how they were selected, and whether the sample reflected the size of the registered voter population.

There are also methodological gaps. The report explains that interviews were conducted face-to-face using electronic questionnaires, GPS, trained enumerators and Stata. These are strengths. But the report provides limited detail on the sampling frame, respondent-selection process, response rate, refusals, replacements, weighting methodology and constituency-level allocation.

I am also cautious about comparisons between Round 1 and Round 2. Round 2 only targeted people with valid voter’s cards, unlike Round 1. If the eligibility criteria changed, some of the movement between the two polls may reflect a change in who was surveyed rather than a genuine change in public opinion.

Importantly, this is a cross-sectional opinion poll, not an election prediction.

The poll reports voting intention at Barrow 32%, Darboe 25%, Bensouda 19%, with 17% undecided. No candidate has overwhelming majority support. The election remains open.

My conclusion is simple: No panic. No complacency. And not to mistake an August opinion poll for the December election result.

The stronger methodological question is not whether 1,556 is “too small”. It is whether those 1,556 people were selected and weighted in a way that genuinely represents the Gambian electorate. Polls do not elect presidents. Voters do.

Nuha Ceesay
The Gambia

The surprising element in the Unite/Coalition 2026 Brikama grand rally

Dear Editor,
The relatively large crowd pulled by the Unite in Brikama on Sunday could arguably be its biggest crowd in the short history of the movement , which is now carrying the weight of Coalition 2026, as its leader, Talib Bensouda, is increasingly being identified as the leader of the party-led Coalition 2026. The size of the crowd has naturally attracted the attention of political pundits, particularly in the context of the intense but underperforming competition with Unite’s parent party, the United Democratic Party (UDP). While this development cannot be overlooked, and while it is expected that the Unite and its allies are expected to heavily spend and strategise their resources to fill the Brikama SPP meeting ground, what was more surprising about the event was not the size of the crowd but the tone of Talib Bensouda’s speech.

Until recently, Talib was generally perceived as relatively soft-spoken, more issue-oriented, and less inclined towards personal attacks. The drastic change in Bensouda’s rhetoric is therefore worth highlighting and may come as a surprise to those who have taken his previous speeches as the benchmark for his political style, rather than the broader tradition of Gambian politics, where personal attacks are not uncommon. In what appears to be a new Talib ahead of the 2026 elections, he delivered a notably more personalised speech, punctuated by mockery of President Barrow and his policies. From mocking Barrow for allegedly hiding under a table and referring to him as “Barrow Blackout” to his sarcasm about the government’s cleaning exercise at Serekunda Market, Talib appears to have ventured into a more personalised form of politics. This could potentially shape the tone of his subsequent speeches and public addresses.

While such rhetoric may resonate with his immediate audience, it is also likely to provoke a response from Barrow and the NPP camp, which has already launched personal attacks against Talib, including references to his ethnic background. Barrow’s response to Talib Bensouda could reignite the debate about the obsession of political parties with personal attacks. It could also complicate the task for the NPP and Barrow, who may find it relatively easy to mock Lawyer Darboe because of his age and prolonged participation in electoral politics, but may have to be more careful in crafting personalised attacks against Talib without crossing political red lines.

Amid the revival of personal attacks between the NPP and Unite, the UDP has reason to celebrate, as Barrow may become increasingly occupied with Talib rather than Darboe in the coming days. If these new developments indicate anything, they suggest that Barrow’s challenges are mounting. He must not only contend with growing voter anger over electricity blackouts, rising and unaffordable prices of basic goods, and deteriorating security and healthcare services, but also manage his attention between the UDP and the Unite, both of which are increasingly making inroads into what have traditionally been Barrow’s strongholds in the Upper River Region and Central River Region.

Alieu SK Manjang
The Gambia